Is Biden Shifting His Stance On the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

Louisa Corbett

May 27, 2024

As Election Day in November creeps closer, it is increasingly apparent that foreign policy will play an unprecedented role in determining who will occupy the Oval Office for the next four years. As President Biden’s stance in the Israel-Palestine conflict shifts, that of his political allies might act similarly.

On October 7, 2023, the U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organization Hamas invaded Israel. They killed more than 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals and captured 253 hostages. In response, on Oct. 27, Israel’s military launched a ground invasion of Gaza, out of which Hamas operates. Israel’s retaliation campaign has since become “one of the most intense bombing campaigns of this century,” according to The New York Times. As of May 7, 2024, health ministries report that the death toll in Gaza has reached 34,844 people and note that up to 10,000 additional uncounted bodies could still be lying in the rubble.

Historically, the U.S. has been a strong ally of Israel. President Harry Truman was the first world leader to recognize the state of Israel when it declared independence in 1948, and annually, the U.S. provides more than $3.3 billion to Israel’s military.

Certainly, President Biden has demonstrated consistency with pro-Israel policy. As a U.S. Senator, he received the most donations in history from pro-Israeli groups. As the U.S. President, after the terrorist attack on Oct. 7, Biden declared in an official statement that the U.S. “will not ever let [Israel] be alone.” He continued, “[w]e’re going to do everything in our power to make sure that [Israel] will be [a safe place for the Jewish people].” Demonstrating his commitment to Israel’s security, at the beginning of the Israel-Palestine conflict, Biden unwaveringly guaranteed “unprecedented support package[s] for Israel’s defense.”

But since the early months of the war, Biden’s stance on Israel has shifted. Throughout the year, the death toll in Gaza has kept climbing, and recent International Rescue Committee reports estimate that over 50% of identified fatalities are women and children.* As the devastation in Gaza mounts at the hands of the Israel Defense Forces and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whom many media platforms are villainizing, calls across America for Biden to withhold support from Israel have also increased. Most notably, with student encampments on campuses, university students nationwide have been protesting Biden’s pro-Israel stance in the war. Many pro-Palestinians share Representative Ilhan Omar of Minnesota’s opinion that Biden is “greenlighting the massacre of Palestinians.”

Recently, the Israel-Palestine split in America has transformed into a partisan political and generational divide, as Democrats and young people become increasingly pro-Palestine while Republicans and the elder generations tend to favor Israel, according to a survey conducted by Northeastern. So what does that mean for Biden?

Biden’s backing of Israel in the conflict has so far lost him the favor of key Democratic voters, especially in swing states. Some Progressives, especially young ones, vow not to vote for Biden unless he calls for a complete cease-fire and holds Israel accountable for massacre.

Taking steps to meet his voters’ demands, Biden has in past weeks lessened his support for Israel. Reports of his privately disparaging Netanyahu for the war and threatening to hold back military aid packages if Israeli forces invade Rafah come in as Biden presumably tries to repair his public goodwill with young, Progressive voters. But for many, Biden’s passive criticism, unbacked by any public assertion or action, of Netanyahu is not enough.

Perhaps that is why, only days ago, at his commencement speech at Morehouse College, President Biden firmly declared his support for an immediate ceasefire: he heard his constituents’ demands and listened. Despite that, many Democrats are not satisfied—they still want to see “a much more permanent solution.”

Attempting to explain Biden’s unwillingness to completely alienate Israel is former State Department official Aaron David Miller. He believes that, because the U.S. has maintained a cordial relationship with Israel, Biden’s Administration is more able to mitigate Netanyahu’s offensive than if the U.S. completely cut ties with Israel.

Whether or not that strategy is effective is still up for debate, but one thing has become clear: as foreign policy becomes a party issue in America, some believe the stance Biden takes in the Israel-Palestine conflict could determine whether or not he wins the Presidency in November.

*It is important to note that some of these figures are provided by Hamas and may not be correct, but these are the numbers recognized by global humanitarian organizations like the International Rescue Committee.